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  • 需求库存与焦炭价钱耐磨弯头变化之间泛起负相关关系

    时间:2014-07-14 08:06 作者:耐磨弯头 点击:次
    我们一般通过对商品的供给、需求、库存等进行基本分析来预测商品市场中长期的走势,根据供求理论,供求之间的关系决定价格走势,而库存则是反应供求关系的直接体现,供大于求

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    重点研究分析焦炭库存与其价钱变化之间的关系,二零一一年九月中旬至二零一一年一二月中旬钢厂焦炭平均可用天数由一二点八天上升至一八点六天,焦炭价钱与供应库存变化之前泛起反常的正相关关系,而此期间MyCpic焦炭价钱综合指数也由一一三八点一零反弹至一二二八点二零,但短期的供应库存与焦炭价钱变化并不总是泛起负相关关系,这可能是因为钢厂冬季补库需求所导致的;众所周知, 图一:MyCpic焦炭价钱综合指数与年平均值变化趋势 图二:三大口岸焦炭总库存与年平均值变化趋势 二、需求库存与焦炭价钱的相关性分析 我们可以从图三看出以mysteel统计的五零家样本钢厂焦炭库存平均可用天数为代表的需求库存逐年淘汰,一一月份至来年二月份一般都泛起冬季严冷气候的特征;我国北方耐磨弯头资源富厚,南方耐磨弯头资源较为匮乏,钢厂冬储有所淡化,可见当需求库存止涨回落和供应库存止降回升时, 我们一般通过对商品的供应、需求、库存等举行基天职析来预测商品市场中恒久的走势,以后焦炭价钱一连反弹而且幅度较大,需求库存止涨回落和供应库存止降回升是焦炭价钱一连性反弹空间较大的充实而非不须要条件,耐磨弯头,而在非冬储期间需求库存与焦炭价钱变化之间也可能泛起负相关关系,焦炭价钱综合指数为一二零八点八零,这就导致了短期需求库存与焦炭价钱变化之间泛起负相关关系,钢厂仍处于张望阶段未连忙增加采购计划,凭据供求理论,近年来因焦炭产能的释放和口岸库存的增加,二零一二年焦炭价钱最低点为九月中旬,在焦炭价钱止跌反弹的前提下。

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    七月下旬之前焦炭价钱一连下行,焦炭价钱与需求库存整体变化趋势之间泛起正相关关系,

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